The Hottest Item this Holiday Season, the New Apple Watch, Get it Now!

by, Suzanne Coleman

After Apple’s new product announcements yesterday I am surprised that more people aren’t seeing what I am seeing.  The important take away message is this:  the Apple Watch will be an independently-functioning device that you will be able to  use to make and receive phone calls.  People can leave their cell phone at home, at work, or in the car.  They no longer need to lug their heavy, awkward devices around 24/7 to stay in touch.

THIS IS HUGE.

If my predictions are correct, the Apple Watch will be this year’s have to give it/ have to get it gift at Christmas.  Everyone will have to have it, it will be the new COOL.  Think Sony Walkman, Apple iPhone… and now the Apple Watch.

Just wait and see.

My Apple price target for during the holiday sales period is 200-210 and up to 240 during that quarter’s reporting period early next year.  Buy now, make money.

That’s all for today people, I hope you are paying attention 🙂

 

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Yes, I do own Apple stock, but I also report my observations as objectively as possible.

 

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New Apple Watch Apps for Industry, Pretty Cool

by,

Suzanne Coleman, MD

I just came across this article and thought it was pretty interesting:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-ibm-release-three-apps-130150745.html

It talks about a few new apps for the Apple Watch.  One is for nurses which allows them to receive important info on patients.  I think that is a great idea, if it works well.  This might remove the need for those bells that are often ignored, and do more to disrupt other patients than help the one in need.  Instead a tap on the wrist saying “Hello!  I need you” will alert the nursing staff to a patient’s needs.  And since there is a speaker, why wouldn’t they be able to speak to the patient directly via the Watch?  Pretty cool development.  If they work well, I can see financially-capable hospitals equipping their staff with these Watches.

No one is buying Apple

by,

Suzanne Coleman

Thestreet.com reported today that Apple is in talks to bring Apple Pay to China, and part of their strategy is to work with Alibaba, China’s massive online store, similar to our Amazon.  But the stock hasn’t gone up in response to this news, why not?

Maybe it’s because everyone already thought this would happen.  That makes sense, since Apple is currently focused on expanding access for the Chinese to its products and services by opening many more stores in China.

It has been previously reported that Apple makes $0.10-0.15 PER Apple Pay transaction, that is a BIG deal.  With about 62 million current iPhone users in China*, this is a big future contributor to Apple’s bottom line.  If you guesstimated 30% of those iPhone owners used Apple Pay once every 2 days, you would end up with over $531,000 a day in revenue from Apple Pay in China alone.  And Apple is increasing the number of users there as we speak.  So, basically, it’s a big deal.  I have predicted that Apple will make major moves in the finance sector here:  [https://sliceiconic.com/2015/03/16/apples-future-domination-apple-watch-applebank-and-appleplay/].  We’ll see what happens.

Maybe Apple stock has been doing so poorly, relative to its actual performance as a BUSINESS, is because everyone/every institution who wants to own the stock, already does.  That would make sense.  Its price rises before earnings due to short-term buyers hoping to cash in on a quick up and down movement, and then it drops back down to almost where it was before earnings were reported.  I’ve written on this odd behavior of investors before, here: [https://sliceiconic.com/2015/01/27/reasonability/], where I discuss the reasonableness of PE ratios and investor behaviors.

What more is there to say?  Maybe the stock price hasn’t moved significantly because everybody is waiting to hear the numbers from the Apple Watch sales?  I don’t think that’s the case since most professionals have read the analysis which suggests that even if Watches are selling as expected, those sales won’t contribute significantly to the bottom line, for now.

I currently see Apple as “the new IBM.”  It’s become the “old stalwart” of the tech boom industry.  I guess 33-40% increases in profit year-over-year is a bit stale and dusty?  Right?

Anyone?

Bueller?

Its stock price barely moves in response to stellar quarterly reports on its performance, odd.  Am I the only one who thinks this way?  Oh, no, wait, I’m not.  There is that famous guy, what’s his name?  Carl Icahn.  Yeah… maybe we’ve both got it wrong.  🙂

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NOTE:  This writer owns shares of Apple stock though she’s not really sure why anymore…

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*Based on estimates of 520 million smartphone users and a 12% market share as reported by cnet.com here:  http://www.cnet.com/news/china-likely-to-top-us-for-apple-iphone-sales/

The Apple Fail

by,

Suzanne Coleman

[Ok, I wrote this about a week or so ago, when they reported the delays in delivery for the Apple Watch, but since I didn’t publish it, I’m doing it today.  The analysis is still relevant.  Only time will tell if this new product release method that Apple employed will work or not, though I’m thinking it certainly isn’t be the ideal way to do things.]

I’ve got to say, when you pay someone 75 some million dollars because they’re “Just so awesome” to get them to come to your company and work, you’d probably think they wouln’t completely f@%* up your business, wouldn’t you?  Well, that’s what is happening now, or so it seems.

It’s the Apple Fail, not the Apple Watch.

Telling your customers that your BIG NEW PRODUCT is going to be available on April 24th, and then failing to have product available?  Wow, that’s the kind of company that quietly disappears from the news as it goes out of business.  That is such a huge strategic FAIL I don’t know what to say.

Not only do they not have product available for sale, they are telling people who already paid for the product that they will have to wait MONTHS to get it!  WHAT?!@  Omg, Apple, I am so not happy.

And during the run-up campaign to the release for the Apple Watch, having major news outlets telling the public that the watch CANNOT BE PURCHASED in the store?  Seriously?  Who’s in charge there?  I mean, I caught the error, nobody at Apple did?  Hmm…  Obviously people who went into the stores WERE able to buy it online while in the stores.  How many didn’t even bother going because they weren’t interested in being jerked around?  Yeah, I wonder.  The kind of people who might pay $10,000 for a device, that’s the kind of people who aren’t really into being jerked around, and probably a few others as well.

And now they are saying that deliveries might not have such huge delays after all.  What to believe?  Like Taylor Swift said: “This is exhausting.”

I know they have pulled this availability manipulation before, and it didn’t destroy the company, so maybe people find it attractive and charming, kind of like playing hard to get?   But that kind of selfish, manipulative behavior generally tends to push people away…

 

NOTE:  I own Apple stock, and I expect the same thing from them that I do from any company that I work with/interact with:  quality customer service, ethics, reliability, responsibility, quality products, etc.

After their stock’s performance this quarter, I’m not sure I’ll still be adding this note to my posts… see Amazon, Netflix, YY, Starbucks, Qihoo, Tesla…

Apple Watch, New Ads, Nicely Done

By,

Suzanne Coleman

Just found this article:

http://fortune.com/2015/04/24/hats-off-to-angela-ahrendts/?xid=yahoo_fortune

where you can watch the three new Apple Watch ads.  It’s funny because just last night I was thinking they needed to do ads with a human experience aspect, and voila, there they are!  Nicely done, too.

After I watched the last one, I said to myself, I need that watch!  Seriously.

NOTE:  I own Apple stock, but this wasn’t biased by that.

Apple Online Store, Delayed Opening for the Apple Watch but now Open

by,

Suzanne Coleman

Well I was getting worried when it was 2:01am CST and the online Apple Store was still not open.  Finally around 2:14am I was able to see the Apple Watch preorders page instead of the multi-lingual (for the us site?) flashing statement that they weren’t open yet.  I hope this delay doesn’t portend future problems with the rollout of this and other products.

Now we just have to wait and see how many watches sell, and how people adopt them into their lifestyles.  This should be fun!

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NOTE:  I own Apple stock.

Wait, the Apple Watch Store is, Closed?

by,

Suzanne Coleman

I just thought that since I’m up, I’d stop by and check out the online Apple Store where you are able to pre-order your personalized Apple Watch, starting in less than two hours from now, and see what’s going on, but when I went to the site I found out that it was “Closed.”  Uh, oh…

What does that mean?  I sure hope it doesn’t mean that the Store is broken and isn’t going to be able to handle all of those early buyers’ business.  At least while I wait to see what is going to happen, I can learn to say “We’re busy updating the Apple Store for you and will be back soon” in a variety of fun and fancy languages!  Apparently they have 3 different ones in Spanish, I wonder why?  And two in French!  I knew those Canadians never made any sense… 🙂

What I really want to know, is what is “snart tilbake” and where can I get one?!

Funny, now that I think about it, sitting here and watching these multi-lingual announcements flash by is not unlike standing outside of a large plate glass window storefront and watching what’s going on inside while you wait for the store to open.  So, just maybe, they haven’t completely foregone the good old making-customers-wait-in-line outside of their stores altogether, but have morphed it into an online waiting game instead.  And wait we will…

Apple Watch in the Shower?

Famous Girl on the Prowl.   © Suzanne M. Coleman, all rights reserved.

Famous Girl on the Prowl.
© Suzanne M. Coleman, all rights reserved.

by,

Suzanne Coleman

Ok, this is really hilarious!  A day in the life with an Apple Watch, watch it here:

http://www.wsj.com/video/apple-watch-what-living-with-it-is-really-like/13DDE53D-4DF3-4EDD-A519-4B2E3CA4F11B.html

After I watched this hilarious video, I wanted to send a quick note to Joanna who put this video report together but I couldn’t figure out how to reach her.  The new era of communications…  anyway Joanna, awesome work!

On the down side, after this was done playing, the Wall Street Journal website flipped me to another video and stuck me in a loop so I couldn’t get back to this video’s page no matter how many times I tried to go back.  Ridiculous and strange behaviors.  I have also seen this on forbes.com.  Come on guys, if we want to read another article we will, don’t try and manipulate viewers, it’s nothing short of extremely creepy and annoying.

Apple Watch Demo on Packaging, Real, or Fake?

by,

Suzanne Coleman

Fortune.com had an article today which included a link to a youtube video that appears to show the “unboxing” of the Apple Watch.  I am attaching the link below for you so that you can go and take a look.  I am not sure if this is legitimate or not.  The watch appears to be real based on how it works, but I question the packaging as the box inside of the box isn’t secure and almost falls open as it is removed from the outer white box.

When I clicked on the youtube.com link to see the original video I was brought to a much longer video which said it was for a “fake” Apple Watch (I did not watch this video).

The cool thing is that this clip shows the metal loop watch band (Milanese) and how it magnetically attaches at the wrist.  If this is the real thing it looks great and like it would be fun to wear.

Here is the link:

http://fortune.com/2015/04/08/apple-watch-unboxing/?xid=yahoo_fortune

Apple’s future domination: Apple Watch, AppleBank, and ApplePlay

by,

Suzanne Coleman, MD

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UPDATE:

Interestingly, about 9 hours after I posted this original analysis to “The Slice Iconic,” “The Wall Street Journal” published an article claiming that sources say that Apple is working on a TV service.  They give specific details but it appears to be unofficial information at this point.  Many other news outlets have now referred to the WSJ’s article.

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When I first heard of the Apple Watch I didn’t think it was going to be of any value so I didn’t even include it in my projections for the company’s success.  Now that I’ve seen it and understand it better, I think it will be the next iPod.  But they will need to make it useable without the iPhone first.  Then adoption will be widespread.  Will this lead to the end of the iPhone?  No, I don’t think so.  I think that the aWatch will have 3 main adopters:  business people, teens, and cool people.  Other than that, it will depend on the individual’s needs and tastes.  The iPod blew up the market in teens and young adults, and the rest is history.  The iPhone came out of the iPod and now the aWatch is coming out of the iPhone.

I see the aWatch being used as a portable device to make and receive calls, send and receive texts, provide reminders, follow stocks and alerts, for travel information, paying your bill, oh, and as a watch.  And it plays music too.  According to gizmodo.com, it can do this without the iPhone.  It uses wireless technology to send the music to your bluetooth-enabled earphones/headset.  I’m guessing it can also play music over the included speaker.

The iPhone will be the new iPad as device sizes contract for portability.  If you need something bigger, the new Mac can be used for typing and photoshop work etc. while at work, on the train, plane what have you.  It’s an Apple World future.

Outside of devices which dominate the world of information and communication, I see the following.  Apple Pay is going to be huge.  Well, really, it already is.  I can’t recall ever having seen something new adopted so quickly into a market.  Again I ask, how are they monetizing this product?  I don’t know their strategy, not being privy to it, but I can theorize.

What if Apple eventually opens up the new AppleBank?  Apple already has users using its “credit card” and software.  Apple has plenty of liquidity to provide and manage loans in large numbers, and they have a massive customer base.  How hard would it be to turn Apple Pay into AppleBank Accounts with Apple Pay replacing checking and credit cards?  Then, if you feel comfortable, when you need to buy that new Apple Car, you can get your Apple Loan, and one day that Apple House might be in your sights too.

Even if Apple Pay never morphs into a more complex payment system like a bank, Apple will still have the potential to make millions, and more likely billions, from it annually.  Adoption is already widespread by users and businesses.  If Apple takes a small commission from each transaction as a convenience fee, that will quickly add up to additional profits.

Into another huge market segment, personal entertainment.  Apple TV was never a hot item, but Apple didn’t drop it.  We are now seeing the market  for media entertainment shift again in its delivery methods and Apple is working to get ahead of the curve by its deal with HBO to provide their content as a sole provider.  Hmm… where will this lead?  I believe I mentioned this in an earlier article, Apple could be exploring the possibility of being a full-service provider of personal entertainment and this is one of many new steps in that direction.  Cable and satellite might be cut out of the deal altogether.  Netflix and Amazon have probably already started to squirm at the thought of such a massive new competitor.  Apple could call this new endeavor ApplePlay.  Only time will tell if this will become a fully functional segment of their business.  If it does, it has the potential to be very profitable.

Apple is positioned very strongly to maintain and grow its current marketshare for personal computing devices over at least the next 2-3 years.  Any of the other areas that it is currently exploring would only add to that success.

 

For the audience:

If there was an AppleBank, would you open an account?  Let us know in the comments below.

 

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NOTE:  I own shares of Apple stock.

 

 

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