by,

Suzanne Coleman, MD

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UPDATE:

Interestingly, about 9 hours after I posted this original analysis to “The Slice Iconic,” “The Wall Street Journal” published an article claiming that sources say that Apple is working on a TV service.  They give specific details but it appears to be unofficial information at this point.  Many other news outlets have now referred to the WSJ’s article.

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When I first heard of the Apple Watch I didn’t think it was going to be of any value so I didn’t even include it in my projections for the company’s success.  Now that I’ve seen it and understand it better, I think it will be the next iPod.  But they will need to make it useable without the iPhone first.  Then adoption will be widespread.  Will this lead to the end of the iPhone?  No, I don’t think so.  I think that the aWatch will have 3 main adopters:  business people, teens, and cool people.  Other than that, it will depend on the individual’s needs and tastes.  The iPod blew up the market in teens and young adults, and the rest is history.  The iPhone came out of the iPod and now the aWatch is coming out of the iPhone.

I see the aWatch being used as a portable device to make and receive calls, send and receive texts, provide reminders, follow stocks and alerts, for travel information, paying your bill, oh, and as a watch.  And it plays music too.  According to gizmodo.com, it can do this without the iPhone.  It uses wireless technology to send the music to your bluetooth-enabled earphones/headset.  I’m guessing it can also play music over the included speaker.

The iPhone will be the new iPad as device sizes contract for portability.  If you need something bigger, the new Mac can be used for typing and photoshop work etc. while at work, on the train, plane what have you.  It’s an Apple World future.

Outside of devices which dominate the world of information and communication, I see the following.  Apple Pay is going to be huge.  Well, really, it already is.  I can’t recall ever having seen something new adopted so quickly into a market.  Again I ask, how are they monetizing this product?  I don’t know their strategy, not being privy to it, but I can theorize.

What if Apple eventually opens up the new AppleBank?  Apple already has users using its “credit card” and software.  Apple has plenty of liquidity to provide and manage loans in large numbers, and they have a massive customer base.  How hard would it be to turn Apple Pay into AppleBank Accounts with Apple Pay replacing checking and credit cards?  Then, if you feel comfortable, when you need to buy that new Apple Car, you can get your Apple Loan, and one day that Apple House might be in your sights too.

Even if Apple Pay never morphs into a more complex payment system like a bank, Apple will still have the potential to make millions, and more likely billions, from it annually.  Adoption is already widespread by users and businesses.  If Apple takes a small commission from each transaction as a convenience fee, that will quickly add up to additional profits.

Into another huge market segment, personal entertainment.  Apple TV was never a hot item, but Apple didn’t drop it.  We are now seeing the market  for media entertainment shift again in its delivery methods and Apple is working to get ahead of the curve by its deal with HBO to provide their content as a sole provider.  Hmm… where will this lead?  I believe I mentioned this in an earlier article, Apple could be exploring the possibility of being a full-service provider of personal entertainment and this is one of many new steps in that direction.  Cable and satellite might be cut out of the deal altogether.  Netflix and Amazon have probably already started to squirm at the thought of such a massive new competitor.  Apple could call this new endeavor ApplePlay.  Only time will tell if this will become a fully functional segment of their business.  If it does, it has the potential to be very profitable.

Apple is positioned very strongly to maintain and grow its current marketshare for personal computing devices over at least the next 2-3 years.  Any of the other areas that it is currently exploring would only add to that success.

For the audience:

If there was an AppleBank, would you open an account?  Let us know in the comments below.

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NOTE:  I own shares of Apple stock.

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