No one is buying Apple


Suzanne Coleman reported today that Apple is in talks to bring Apple Pay to China, and part of their strategy is to work with Alibaba, China’s massive online store, similar to our Amazon.  But the stock hasn’t gone up in response to this news, why not?

Maybe it’s because everyone already thought this would happen.  That makes sense, since Apple is currently focused on expanding access for the Chinese to its products and services by opening many more stores in China.

It has been previously reported that Apple makes $0.10-0.15 PER Apple Pay transaction, that is a BIG deal.  With about 62 million current iPhone users in China*, this is a big future contributor to Apple’s bottom line.  If you guesstimated 30% of those iPhone owners used Apple Pay once every 2 days, you would end up with over $531,000 a day in revenue from Apple Pay in China alone.  And Apple is increasing the number of users there as we speak.  So, basically, it’s a big deal.  I have predicted that Apple will make major moves in the finance sector here:  [].  We’ll see what happens.

Maybe Apple stock has been doing so poorly, relative to its actual performance as a BUSINESS, is because everyone/every institution who wants to own the stock, already does.  That would make sense.  Its price rises before earnings due to short-term buyers hoping to cash in on a quick up and down movement, and then it drops back down to almost where it was before earnings were reported.  I’ve written on this odd behavior of investors before, here: [], where I discuss the reasonableness of PE ratios and investor behaviors.

What more is there to say?  Maybe the stock price hasn’t moved significantly because everybody is waiting to hear the numbers from the Apple Watch sales?  I don’t think that’s the case since most professionals have read the analysis which suggests that even if Watches are selling as expected, those sales won’t contribute significantly to the bottom line, for now.

I currently see Apple as “the new IBM.”  It’s become the “old stalwart” of the tech boom industry.  I guess 33-40% increases in profit year-over-year is a bit stale and dusty?  Right?



Its stock price barely moves in response to stellar quarterly reports on its performance, odd.  Am I the only one who thinks this way?  Oh, no, wait, I’m not.  There is that famous guy, what’s his name?  Carl Icahn.  Yeah… maybe we’ve both got it wrong.  🙂


NOTE:  This writer owns shares of Apple stock though she’s not really sure why anymore…


*Based on estimates of 520 million smartphone users and a 12% market share as reported by here:

Apple’s future domination: Apple Watch, AppleBank, and ApplePlay


Suzanne Coleman, MD



Interestingly, about 9 hours after I posted this original analysis to “The Slice Iconic,” “The Wall Street Journal” published an article claiming that sources say that Apple is working on a TV service.  They give specific details but it appears to be unofficial information at this point.  Many other news outlets have now referred to the WSJ’s article.


When I first heard of the Apple Watch I didn’t think it was going to be of any value so I didn’t even include it in my projections for the company’s success.  Now that I’ve seen it and understand it better, I think it will be the next iPod.  But they will need to make it useable without the iPhone first.  Then adoption will be widespread.  Will this lead to the end of the iPhone?  No, I don’t think so.  I think that the aWatch will have 3 main adopters:  business people, teens, and cool people.  Other than that, it will depend on the individual’s needs and tastes.  The iPod blew up the market in teens and young adults, and the rest is history.  The iPhone came out of the iPod and now the aWatch is coming out of the iPhone.

I see the aWatch being used as a portable device to make and receive calls, send and receive texts, provide reminders, follow stocks and alerts, for travel information, paying your bill, oh, and as a watch.  And it plays music too.  According to, it can do this without the iPhone.  It uses wireless technology to send the music to your bluetooth-enabled earphones/headset.  I’m guessing it can also play music over the included speaker.

The iPhone will be the new iPad as device sizes contract for portability.  If you need something bigger, the new Mac can be used for typing and photoshop work etc. while at work, on the train, plane what have you.  It’s an Apple World future.

Outside of devices which dominate the world of information and communication, I see the following.  Apple Pay is going to be huge.  Well, really, it already is.  I can’t recall ever having seen something new adopted so quickly into a market.  Again I ask, how are they monetizing this product?  I don’t know their strategy, not being privy to it, but I can theorize.

What if Apple eventually opens up the new AppleBank?  Apple already has users using its “credit card” and software.  Apple has plenty of liquidity to provide and manage loans in large numbers, and they have a massive customer base.  How hard would it be to turn Apple Pay into AppleBank Accounts with Apple Pay replacing checking and credit cards?  Then, if you feel comfortable, when you need to buy that new Apple Car, you can get your Apple Loan, and one day that Apple House might be in your sights too.

Even if Apple Pay never morphs into a more complex payment system like a bank, Apple will still have the potential to make millions, and more likely billions, from it annually.  Adoption is already widespread by users and businesses.  If Apple takes a small commission from each transaction as a convenience fee, that will quickly add up to additional profits.

Into another huge market segment, personal entertainment.  Apple TV was never a hot item, but Apple didn’t drop it.  We are now seeing the market  for media entertainment shift again in its delivery methods and Apple is working to get ahead of the curve by its deal with HBO to provide their content as a sole provider.  Hmm… where will this lead?  I believe I mentioned this in an earlier article, Apple could be exploring the possibility of being a full-service provider of personal entertainment and this is one of many new steps in that direction.  Cable and satellite might be cut out of the deal altogether.  Netflix and Amazon have probably already started to squirm at the thought of such a massive new competitor.  Apple could call this new endeavor ApplePlay.  Only time will tell if this will become a fully functional segment of their business.  If it does, it has the potential to be very profitable.

Apple is positioned very strongly to maintain and grow its current marketshare for personal computing devices over at least the next 2-3 years.  Any of the other areas that it is currently exploring would only add to that success.


For the audience:

If there was an AppleBank, would you open an account?  Let us know in the comments below.



NOTE:  I own shares of Apple stock.



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Apple Live Event Notes and the Full Introduction of the Apple Watch


Suzanne Coleman

What new information was discussed and does it matter?  (Old info will not be reviewed again.)  Technical note, their audio is in and out so it’s a bit hard to stay focused, plus the speakers go very slowly.  Maybe this is normal business speak.

1.  They are dropping the price of Apple TV from $99 to $69, presumably in response to Amazon Fire’s lowering of their price to $19.  Which one would you buy?  What is the difference??  They didn’t go into details on this product.

2.  Medical uses for iWatch.  I am confused.  They are talking about using it for research.  Ok, nice idea, but that will not likely impact individual sales of the item in my opinion.  This could be a revenue generator for the company as they sell your medical information.  They promise to protect your individual identity as is the norm.  Do these research deals reduce the cost to the consumers who participate (you can choose)?  I doubt it.  A bit of a grey area in my opinion.  With all of the data breaches we have already seen in medical databases, having it on your watch is a questionable idea.  This is called “Research Kit.”  There is a clear interest in the Apple team in medicine.

3.  HBO deal, not news, but they discussed the initially exclusive business relationship between HBO’s new streaming video service and Apple.  It’s nice, Apple is branching out into cable tv deals.  This could mean they are considering becoming a more integrated service provider to end-users.  Maybe they will buy out AT&T with all of that extra cash?  😉  who knows (they didn’t say that, that is just me).

4.  My favorite new thing, you can use your Apple Pay device to pay at hundreds of thousands of vending machines, including Coca-Cola.  Now that is useful!  They note that Apple Pay is very widely accepted.  I say that it is probably going to be a huge revenue generator in the future, though as an investor I wish they would discuss this as I have found no information on how or when they intend to do this.

5.  CarPlay = what is it?  Whatever it is, it’s being adopted by many manufacturers.  Ok looked it up, it just connects your iPhone to a car, if equipped, so that you can use it via the car’s controls.  Sounds useful.  No mention of the “iAuto” (yes, I just made that up, sounds better than what other people have been calling the “iCar”).

6.  Apple is expanding inside of China by opening more retail locations.  They currently have only 21 stores.  I would have thought they would have had 100s by now.

7.  The Mac.  Tim is discussing its growth, but instead of noting how it is relatively still very far behind most of the competitors, he says it’s growing greatly.  Well, since it was so far behind, any growth will be “great.”  I say, let’s drop that price so that it’s competitive and see how sales shoot for the moon.  That is how I would drive sales and increased profits.

Apparently they have “reinvented the notebook” and are showing a video of what looks like the exact same thing they’ve had for years…  I guess (now showing the actual product) it is smaller and lighter, and in gold.  That is pretty.

It weighs “only” 2 lbs.  And it’s thinner (24%).  They’re “introducing” more stable keys for the keyboard (reminds me of the days before cheap tech).

It has retina display, good stuff.

Best thing ever, no fan so no noise.  They’ve also done some interesting things with the track pad and batteries.  It’s environmentally friendly, good.

New USB-C.  Never heard of it.  Hoping this doesn’t mean all new cords… again.  Only one port, that’s it, as far as I saw.

Prices range from $1299-1599.  Shipping begins April 10th.

Other models also have some upgrades.

8.  And, not surprisingly, last, the Apple Watch.  It’s accurate (well, is that special?).

Seems pretty cool.

OOoo it has some features that will be BAD for high school kids lol.  (Well good for them, bad for the teachers trying to get them to stay focused on their work.)  You can directly communicate with other Apple Watch wearers though visuals, touch sensations, or message/phone calls.  The drawing app is cool…

Other features:  full access to e-mail.  Appointment reminders, customizable watch face.  Notifications.  Answer and make calls.  News alerts.  And more.

Apple Watch can hold your flight boarding info so that you don’t need boarding tickets.  It can let you check into your hotel without going up to the desk and get you into the room without a key (I am assuming only newer technology will work with this).  You can monitor your home remotely as well as use the Watch to open doors that are electronically-controlled like your garage door.

Apps are loaded onto the Watch via the iPhone.  The Apple Watch App helps control and set-up the Watch and is available for download now.

Battery life, 18 hrs on average.  Charging is simple, through what appears to be a magnetized disc that connects to the back of the watch while you are not wearing it.  I read elsewhere that it charges fully in 2 hours.

The manufacture of the watch is discussed.  Apparently, like the ONE RING, the steel watch is too forged in a special fire 🙂


Apple Watch “Edition,” the gold version from $10,000.

Apple Watch “Sport” which has the aluminum case runs $350-400 based on size.

Apple Watch (no special name) which is the steel case runs $550-1100.

Pre-order April 10th and try on every style in stores with personal assistance.  For sale April 24th in many countries including the US and China.


My Summary:

I can easily see Apple Watch being great for salespeople, young people, parents, and tech lovers.

From a business perspective, I think Apple’s use of product placement is smart and effective.  This has made the brand seem like a part of everyday life in so many aspects.  They have already begun doing this with the Apple Watch when it had a cameo on the wrist of Sue Sylvester on “Glee” in this past week’s episode.


Browse my other articles on Apple and the Apple watch Watch.

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