Apple Watch, in Pictures

I wanted to update my thoughts on the upcoming new product the Apple Watch.  Today I was able to take a look at some images of the Watch in its different versions, and I found some of them to be attractive.  Of course, my favorite was the “Edition” Watch, which is going to be insanely (well, for me) expensive… it is estimated (i.e. rumored) that it will cost around $10,000.

You can see pics of the Watches online at the MacRumors site here:

http://www.macrumors.com/roundup/apple-watch/

Looking at the pic of the watch on a man’s arm, I still find it too be too big and clunky for my taste, but maybe the colorful versions will be more attractive.  The site says that Apple is likely going to allow owners to interchange watch bands so that they can have multiple looks for one device.  I like that idea!  MacRumors has gathered quite a bit of good information on the product, take a look for yourselves.

What do you think?  Are you ready to stand in line to be one of the first to own and wear the all-new Apple Watch?

Let us know in the comments!

 

 

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NOTE:  I own shares of Apple (AAPL) stock.

 

Apple Watch, will it bomb or will it be THE BOMB?

by,

Suzanne Coleman

 

I want to talk about the Apple Watch for a minute.  What do you all think?  Will it be the success that some are saying?  I am wondering because I haven’t heard anyone talking about it at all.  As an owner of the stock, I hope it does well, but I personally don’t see the appeal.  I mean, the idea of it was cool, but the execution?  I’m not so sure.

The fact that you will need to have your iPhone in your pocket, or bag, in order for the watch to do anything, kind of negates the whole concept of an easier way to access your programs, doesn’t it?  I mean, how hard is it really to pull out the phone and use it vs. having this clunky, not very attractive giant square on your wrist?  I don’t really see it being a big fashion accessory either.  Maybe after the ad-bomb I’m sure they’re planning for the sales push people will be all over how “cool” it looks, but I’m not convinced that that would work either.

I guess I can see it making life a bit easier for some who are using certain functions a lot.  It will keep your hands relatively free, so if  you were on the go and needed to call someone or check your stocks or something, it might be an advantage.  Maybe I’ll need to try one out to see if it’s really all that or not…

Now that I think about it, if they had one all in red, with the band and the screen red, with a ring of silver trim around the screen, where the screen stays red until you touch it…  That I might buy.  IF it made my life easier, and not more complicated.

What do you think guys?

 

 

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Reasonability

If you keep playing with that, you're going to get hurt. © Suzanne Coleman, all rights reserved.

If you keep playing with that, you’re going to get hurt.
© Suzanne Coleman, all rights reserved.

by,

Suzanne Coleman

Is that even a word?  I have been wanting to ask the stock trading community this:  what is reasonable, and what is not?  Let’s talk PE.

I started trading during the “birth” of the internet, basically when companies that utilized it for profit were being born and growing, and the computer industry came along with them hand-in-hand.

At this time, people were piling into technology stocks, why wouldn’t you, when all they do is keep going up?  PEs were insane, or that’s what the older generation told me.  They were normal to me 🙂  I was told that a good, stable company should have a PE of 7 or 8, and a high-growth company might be safe at a PE of 15.  Hmm…

Well, in the internet days, a good stable, safe company would have a PE of 30.  An insane company that everyone wanted to own (was it cool like an iPhone?) might have a PE of over 100, up to, gosh I can’t even remember for sure, but probably up to 500-700.  Yeah, like I said, it was insane.

So now, almost 20 years later, I am looking at stocks again, some of the very same stocks I watched or owned back then, and trying to adjust to today’s market psychology and culture.  It’s hard.  Here is why.

Let’s start with a biggie, Amazon (AMZN), wow.  Well, I had that sucker for a really long time, I believed in it, I thought this damn company has a great idea, it will change the world.  Well, it did…  But its stock price fell along with many other great stocks during the “hell freezes over” period of my investment history.  That was in the early 2000s if I recall correctly.  So, I was holding on to it, it was once maybe $350 or so, and then came down to maybe $84.  Finally I decided to sell it, I was being too LOYAL (big issue to avoid), holding on to it, hoping it would eventually return to its glory days.  Well, then, of course, it did rise back up after years of just sitting there like a lump on a log (while I waited), and now it’s back up to over 300, and has even been at 400.  Wow.  If only we could predict these things…

So here’s the rub, AMZN is now at 310 with a PE of… ok, I guess they are now losing money so the PE is not listed.  Not too long ago, it was in the hundreds, maybe like 600?  My question to you all, is this, why would you continue to buy up a stock that is seriously over-valued?  I mean, you could lose almost all of your money if it drops down to where it should be.  It seems a bit like drug-induced insanity to me… what am I missing?  Have I gotten too old for this?

Then on the opposite side of the insane spectrum, let’s look at Apple (APPL).  They just reported earnings that were 38% over expectations.  No big deal, right?  Because we all know that Apple has a great history of blowing away even the highest of earnings expectations.  Are we nuts?  Maybe.  Their PE before this data was factored in was about 17.  Pretty reasonable for a company that is still growing and spreading into places like China, with over a billion tech-hungry citizens.  Why not buy Apple?  I’m not sure when Apple became this generation’s IBM, but that’s what it looks like has happened.  Almost no activity on the earnings news, or before it.  Odd.  The 12-month target will be revised upward and the stock price will go up with it.  So, you would think there would be buying now.  Maybe they are expecting a dip tomorrow or this week.  Maybe they fear… any of many things which may impact this activity.  But if you conclude it’s an overall conservatism, it is not.  See… Netflix (NFLX).

Netflix also reported better than expected earnings, just a few days ago (and I really should have bought it when I thought about it at 380, damn…) and is since up over 20%.  Their PE is over 100.  Hmm…  yes, they are also expanding into areas around the world, which is smart, but to buy in at a PE of 100 or more, isn’t really that smart.  I wonder if the “reason” that people do this is that they think it’ll (like Amazon and Yahoo! used to) keep going up, and if they don’t buy in now, they’ll never get to own a piece of it at these prices.  And, so far, in this instance, well this week, they’ve been right.

Look back a few months and you’ll see, well, let’s go to a 12 month chart… you can see that Netflix, like many other stocks these days that seem to do well, has been all over the place, with prices rising and falling significant amounts.  There is a high risk of buying in at a high point, and riding it all of the way down into the subway station.  And then, if you choose, you can end up waiting there for a plane to show up and fly you back up into the clouds.  Dramatic?  Yes, it can be.  There can be tears, there can be exhaultation (literally), so how and when do you decide to jump on a train and see where it will take you?

Let’s go back to Apple.  Strong growth, strong earnings, stable company, good leadership.  Since other big, stable companies are reporting earnings declines and less-than-enthusiastic forecasts, wouldn’t you expect more investors to move their money into Apple and out of those losers?  I mean, growth and stability, how can you go wrong with that?  We’ll see what happens.  I know that most big investors are already in Apple, that may be why there hasn’t been much movement today after earnings were reported to the public.

So what do you think?

 

 

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Obnoxious Commercials, are They Effective at All?

too loud! image with text for slice, signed

By,

Suzanne Coleman, MD, BS social psychology

It seems that the advertising community has decided that screaming at the audience increases sales, but does it really?  I wonder what the research shows on this.

What I have read actually shows that the best way to get and hold someone’s attention, besides actually saying something they want to hear, is to whisper.  Screaming is not whispering, so why are they doing it?

Besides screaming, they have added random loud noises with no real rhythm or melody.  Do they think that everyone has ADD (attention deficit disorder)?

Another prevalent ad technique which doesn’t make much sense is when the presenter is talking really fast, and the speech is edited to eliminate the normal pauses in conversations.  It’s really hard to follow this and again I wonder, is there actually any research that shows that this leads to sales?  I would think that the basis of any sales would be getting the consumer to listen to what you are saying to them, but maybe I am wrong about that.

When any of this noisy distracting craziness is going on, I simply reach for my remote, and hit my favorite button, “mute.”  Ah, that’s better.  Am I the only one?

What about the bright white backdrops they are using so often these days?  With the new backlit televisions, this just blinds me, am I alone?  I literally block the screen when those commercials are on.  Is that effective marketing?

So conversely, what are the best commercials?  Well, in my opinion, the ones that are enjoyable.  Now I know I am not alone on this when I say that the ones with the best music are at the top of the list.  Add to those the ones with interesting and enjoyable visuals and you have my top characteristics of TV ads that hold my interest.  These tend to be things like high-end car ads, some other car ads, Target ads over the last few years or more, some Apple ads, and others.

So I want to know, is this an age thing?  Maybe a cultural background issue?  Or is it just that advertising executives are making the wrong choices when it comes to really getting their audience to sit, watch, and listen to their ads?  I wonder what the research shows.

What do YOU think?

Please add your voice in the comments (see the link at the top by the title, or below).

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